1. Antonio Brown - PIT - 152 Receptions, 2,039 Receiving Yards & 12 TD. These are Antonio Brown's stats in the last 16 games completed by Ben Roethlisberger
2. Odell Beckham Jr. - NYG - Beckham has averaged 6.9 receptions, 102 yards and 0.92 TD's per game in his NFL career. He's simply incredible.
3. Julio Jones - ATL - His TD totals the past couple of years have been underwhelming but don't overthink it here.
4. AJ Green - CIN - With the departures of Marvin Jones, Mohammad Sanu and the uncertainty surrounding Tyler Eifert's ankle, look for Green to receive an obscene amount of targets this year. Think of DeAndre Hopkins last year - 111 Receptions, 1,521 Yards, 11 TD.
High End WR1
5. DeAndre Hopkins - HOU - How you value Hopkins should be based off how you think the Texans will do this year.
1st Half Stats (3-5 Record): 112 targets, 66 receptions, 870 yards, 6 TD
2nd Half Stats (6-2 Record) : 80 targets, 45 receptions, 651 yards, 5 TD
I'm far from sold on Osweiler but I love the additions of Lamar Miller and the vertical threat that Will Fuller brings adds another element to that offense. I think your expectations should be closer to 2nd half totals, which still comes out to an outstanding 16 game total of 90 receptions, 1,302 yards and 10 TD.
6. Dez Bryant - DAL - By selecting Elliott #4 overall in the draft I think Dallas will use the recipe that led them to a 12-4 record in 2014. While Elliott will be the workhorse on that offense Dez Bryant will still be fed plenty and is the only red zone presence in the passing game. In 2014 he finished as WR4 - 136 targets, 88 receptions, 1320 yards, 16 TD.
7. Allen Robinson - JAX - Robinson blew my WR16 ranking out of the water last year on his way to a WR4 finish. A-Rob can certainly replicate his 80 receptions for 1,400 yards from his sophomore season but expecting 14 TD's next season might be a little much.
8. Brandon Marshall - NYJ - He's 32 and getting up there in age but he's still been an elite producer when healthy. The last 3 seasons BMarsh has been healthy he's finished as WR2, WR6 and WR3 with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jay Cutler throwing him the ball.
Low End WR1 / High End WR2
9. Alshon Jeffrey - CHI - Jeffrey was troubled by a hamstring injury last season but still put up over 800 yards and 4 TDs in 9 games. We'll want to monitor his health heading into the season but if he's at full strength he should be a solid WR1. Jeffrey has 70+ yards or a TD in 32 of his last 38 games.
10. Keenan Allen - SD - A lacerated kidney ended Allen's breakout season. Prior to that injury Allen was on pace for 134 receptions, 1,450 yards, 8 TD. I don't expect Allen to keep up that pace but you've certainly seen what he is capable of.
11. TY Hilton - IND - Hilton has been over 130 targets and 1,000 yards each of the past 3 seasons. Evan Silva pointed out that Hilton has an 82-1,504-10 line over Luck's last 16 fully-played games.
12. Mike Evans - TAM - If there is a WR who I could see crashing the top 5 WR party it would be Evans, who is due for TD regression after hauling in only 3 last year on 74 receptions.
13. Jordy Nelson - GB - 2015 showed fans how important Jordy Nelson is to the Packers offensive success. While Nelson is getting up there in age I think he has a couple of Pro Bowl level seasons left. He is a master at his craft. Jordy currently resides here due to being on the PUP list with tendinitis in his "good" knee. I'd like to see Jordy show he's at full strength before I move him up the boards likely into the WR8 or so territory.
WR2 With Upside
14. Demaryius Thomas - DEN - His drops have been maddening at times and the Denver QB situation is scary but I'm going to trust that Gary Kubiak's offense will continue to feed the top WR with an abundance of targets. In a 'disappointing" 2015 Bey-Bey was WR13 and I think it's realistic he finishes in that area again.
15. Amari Cooper - OAK - Even though he faded down the stretch Cooper had an impressive rookie season amassing 72/1070/6. For a 22 year old Cooper is exceptional as a route runner and hopefully in Year 2 he'll cut down on his drops. If healthy I look for Cooper's stats to have a little bit of an uptick.
16. Brandin Cooks - NOR - Cooks is the #1 WR in the Saints potent passing attack. Brees does spread the ball around so I don't see him getting 150 targets but I think Cooks is a relatively safe bet to match his 2015 numbers - 129 targets, 84 receptions, 1,138 yards, 9 TD.
17. Randall Cobb - GB - Cobb was a disappointment in 2015 but I think he's a great candidate to bounce back to his high end WR2 status if Jordy Nelson is healthy. Cobb's been banged up a bit throughout the years but he's still 26 in one of the better offenses in the league and a year removed from a 91-1,287-12 TD season in 2014. If Jordy isn't healthy Cobb likely drops down two tiers.
18. Sammy Watkins - BUF - Watkins might be the toughest person for me to rank. Talent wise he's in the upper echelon of wideouts but playing in a run heavy Rex Ryan system limits his upside, for now. Last season Watkins became the 1st WR to surpass 1,000 yards under a Rex Ryan led team and he did it in only 13 games and less than 100 targets. Buffalo was 2nd to last in pass attempts in 2015 but with all the injuries to their defense (Ragland, Lawson, IK, Dareus (suspension)) they might be in more shootouts.
Not Sexy But Sold WR2
19. Jeremy Maclin - KC - Playing alongside Alex Smith he might not have the highest of ceilings but he still quietly put up 87/1088/8 last season when there weren't many pass heavy game scripts in the second half of the year. One of the safer WR's out there.
20. Jarvis Landry - MIA - I'm interested to see how Landry is deployed this year in Adam Gase's scheme. He's obviously can be a PPR machine but there were rumors that Landry may be used on the outside more to let DeVante Parker work from the slot. Either way I think Landry is in line for 80 receptions.
21. Eric Decker - NYJ - All he does it catch TD's. Decker had 80 yards or a TD in each of his 15 starts in 2015. Over 10 points in PPR every game.
22. Kelvin Benjamin - CAR - Kelvin Benjamin has been a rollercoaster dating back to his days at Florida State. The most recent reports are that he's struggling with conditioning coming off of a torn ACL. Benjamin has as good a shot as anyone to reach 1,200 yards and 10 TD but I think we need to proceed with caution with him. Greg Olson is still the most reliable option in the passing game. Ted Ginn should still have a role in this offense and Devin Funchess, who is basically the same player as Benjamin just 3 years younger, has received praise all camp. I point this all out to say that we should not just be expecting Benjamin to step in to the same role he had as a rookie when he was target 145 times. Even then he was inefficient catching only 50% of his passes and converted 3 of his 17 redzone targets. Both below league average.
Low End WR2/ High Floor WR3
23. Marvin Jones - DET - Jones is an underrated talent. I wrote about his fit and expectations for this coming year here.
24. Donte Moncrief - IND - Many in the industry are predicting Moncrief to be this years breakout WR but I don't have as high of expectations. Moncrief is an exceptional talent with a high ceiling, so I get the hype, but this offseason I wasn't willing to pay for him at his ADP in MFL10's. I see him improving on his 2015 numbers but the Colts OL and Andrew Luck's erratic play are still a cause for concern.
25. Golden Tate - DET - Tate is one of the games finest entertainers and I have a soft spot for him because of that. With the acquisition of Anquon Boldin it sounds like Tate may be used on the outside more than expected which will certainly help bump his YPC up from an anemic 9.0 in 2015. Tate is one of the safest PPR plays and in full point league he belongs in the same category as Jarvis Landry. Tate could catch 100 passes but doesn't have huge TD upside.
26. Michael Floyd - ARI - The Cardinals have 3 awesome WR's and from a fantasy lens its hard to really separate them from one another. Since David Johnson will be the centerpiece of the offense this year I'm expecting the offense to function much like it did the second half of 2015. Michael Floyd had a TD or 100 yards receiving in 7 of the final 10 games last year after he returned from a gruesome hand injury.
27. Larry Fitzgerald - ARI - 109 receptions, 1,215 yards, 9 TD. That's the season that Larry Fitzgerald had as a 32 year old. He's a special talent and functions great in the big slot role that Arizona deploys him in. The addition of David Johnson to the starting lineup, who is one of the best receiving backs in the league, did seem to have an affect on Fitz though.
Non David Johnson Starts (Week 1-11 Avg): 10 targets, 7.5 receptions, 90 yards, 0.63 TD.
David Johnson Starts (Week 12-17 Avg) : 6.8 targets, 5.2 receptions, 44.6 yards, 0.40 TD
You can say small sample size and note that two of the 5 games were blow outs but it's at least something to think about.
28. Michael Crabtree - OAK - Crabtree's lost a step since tearing his achilles but he's still a craftsman that quickly built a nice rapport with Derek Carr. Still one of the more well rounded WR2's in the league I think we can expect similar numbers from him again in 2016.
29. Doug Baldwin - SEA - Baldwin won't catch a league leading 14 TD's again this year but he's a damn good wideout. If Seattle goes with a more pass heavy approach this coming year, like they should, it wouldn't shock me to see Baldwin top 1,000 yards again.
30. Sterling Shepard - NYG - I've tried to tamper my expectations with Shepard but I just don't see how he doesn't haul in 70 passes this year.
31. Tyler Lockett - SEA - He's not quite the next Antonio Brown but he's not far off. Lockett is one of the players I'm most looking forward to see this coming year. I did an in-depth breakdown of Lockett early this offseason here.
32. Julian Edelman - NE - I certainly respect Edelman's game but I see him more as the WR3 in this offense behind Gronk and Bennett. When you also factor in Edelman's injury history and Dion Lewis coming back I don't see a tremendous upside here. If you want 6 receptions for 60 yards then he's your guy.
33. John Brown - ARI - Love me some Smokey Brown but he might be third in the pecking order among wideouts, which is still good for 100 targets. Brown is a dynamic big play threat who actually was one of the more consistent wideouts in fantasy last year. Even with a bum hamstring for part of the season Brown had a TD or 60 yards in 11 of the 15 games he appeared in.
Boom Bust WR3 / Sexy Flexy
34. Jordan Matthews - PHI
35. DeSean Jackson - WAS
36. Torrey Smith - SF
37. Allen Hurns - JAX
38. Emmanuel Sanders - DEN
39. Kamar Aiken - BAL
BYE Week Filler
40. Josh Gordon - CLE
41. Michael Thomas - NOR
42. Kevin White - CHI
43. Stefon Diggs - MIN
44. Corey Coleman - CLE
45. DeVante Parker - MIA
46, Travis Benjamin - SD
47. Bruce Ellington - SF
48. Willie Snead - NOR
49. Vincent Jackson - TAM
Bench WR Full With Upside
50. Laquon Treadwell - MIN
51. Phillip Dorsett - IND
52. Devin Funchess - CAR
53. Mike Wallace - BAL
54. Sammie Coates - PIT
55. Dorial Green-Beckham - PHI
56. Tavon Austin - STL
Boring WR Depth
56. Mohammad Sanu - ATL
57. Pierre Garcon - WAS
58. Markus Wheaton - PIT
59. Rishard Matthews - TEN
60. Tajae Sharpe - TEN
60. Ted Ginn - CAR
HM: Brandon Lafell - CIN, Kendall Wright - TEN, Jaelen Strong - HOU, Tyler Boyd - CIN, Terrance Williams - DAL, Nelson Agholor - PHI,